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What is the Fanatics lawsuit against Marvin Harrison Jr Why hasn t he signed a licensing deal Here s what we know
May is a fascinating month in baseball. Patterns have formed, but some will prove fleeting. Others will end up foreshadowing for what lies ahead in the 2024 MLB season.
We'll try to sort out some of that uncertainty by asking two simple questions: First, what did we expect from each team? Second, what has happened to each team ... so far. Then, we'll do our best to provide some clarification for 30 team portraits that are still very much out of focus.
1. Los Angeles DodgersWin average: 104.3 (Last: 100.0, 1st) In the playoffs: 99.7% (Last: 96.4%) Champions: 29.3% (Last 22.3%)
Expected: To be one of baseball's two best teams.
So far: The Dodgers are one of baseball's two best teams.
There is nothing to indicate that the Dodgers are not what we thought they'd be. Freddie Freeman's power bat has started slow. The L.A. rotation remains injury-riddled, even as Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been an elite one-two. Dave Roberts has had to get creative with his late-inning bullpen at times. Through it all, the Dodgers remain on a 100-win pace and own a run differential that suggests they are even better than that. These little dings in the armor can all be smoothed out, suggesting that the best is yet to come. That is a scary thought.
2. Atlanta BravesWin average: 102.3 (Last: 99.7, 2nd) In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 96.3%) Champions: 22.1% (Last 21.7%)
Expected: To be one of baseball's two best teams.
So far: The Braves are probably one of baseball's two best teams.
The Braves and Dodgers entered their showdown last weekend positioned as expected. Of the numerous injuries we've seen so far, Atlanta losing Spencer Strider for the season is perhaps the biggest gut punch of them all. Yet the Braves have chugged along with plenty of momentum so far with offseason acquisitions Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale coming up big for the rotation. As with L.A., there are reasons to believe we haven't seen Atlanta's best, as Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley have all fallen well short of projection. That is not likely to last for any of them.
3. New York YankeesWin average: 95.0 (Last: 88.8, 6th) In the playoffs: 89.3% (Last: 63.6%) Champions: 10.4% (Last 4.5%)
Expected: A return to contention.
So far: A return to contention.
As ever, the Yankees have been dogged by key injuries. Nevertheless, New York is off to a powerful start on the strength of Juan Soto's MVP turn, Anthony Volpe's sophomore leap and a collectively airtight bullpen. Soto has been the headliner and is on the short list of early front-runners in the American League MVP race. He looks like someone born to don pinstripes, given the way he has mashed and the response he has gotten in the Bronx. Still, the Yankees' bag has been mixed, with a so-so performance from the Gerrit Cole-less rotation, an often maddening offense and Aaron Judge's tepid start.
4. Baltimore OriolesWin average: 94.2 (Last: 91.4, 4th) In the playoffs: 87.5% (Last: 74.8%) Champions: 8.5% (Last 7.5%)
Expected: Contention but a division battle.
So far: Right on target behind consistent starting pitching.
The Orioles' position players have been dynamic at the plate and in the field, with Gunnar Henderson looking like an MVP candidate. We expected all of that. There were bigger concerns about the starting pitching after Kyle Bradish turned up injured during spring training. But the Orioles have gotten by just fine with Corbin Burnes doing what he was acquired to do and Cole Irvin among those holding down the fort. Now Bradish and John Means are back. Just in time, too, as Grayson Rodriguez has a tender shoulder. The Orioles appear to be every bit what they were last season.
5. Philadelphia PhilliesWin average: 94.1 (Last: 87.6, 7th) In the playoffs: 92.8% (Last: 63.4%) Champions: 5.5% (Last 3.3%)
Expected: MLB's best wild-card team.
So far: Hanging with the top tier.
The Phillies haven't gotten peak performances yet from Bryce Harper or Aaron Nola. Nick Castellanos' numbers are downright alarming. And still the Phillies have set the pace early in the top-heavy National League thanks to two surprising early-season awards contenders. Alec Bohm has been one of baseball's top run producers so far, with breakout numbers in all three slash columns. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez has been baseball's best pitcher during the opening weeks of the campaign, pacing a rotation that has also gotten great fill-in work from Spencer Turnbull. This might be the best version of this decade's Phillies we've seen yet.
6. Houston AstrosWin average: 89.1 (Last: 97.1, 3rd) In the playoffs: 70.0% (Last: 91.9%) Champions: 6.0% (Last 14.3%)
Expected: More of the same.
So far: Cracks in the dynastic facade.
The opening weeks have seen the Astros deal with a prolonged bout of struggle worse than any point since their title window opened with their 2017 championship. The injury-ravaged pitching staff has been terrible, but Houston isn't the only expected contender dealing with the injury issue -- others have withstood it better. The hitters have not carried the team as they might have in years past, with Alex Bregman off to a snail-like start and Jose Abreu ranking last in the majors in early-season AXE calculations. Nevertheless, the forecasts lean on Houston's collective track record and foretell a turnaround. We'll see.
7. Minnesota TwinsWin average: 88.9 (Last: 85.9, 10th) In the playoffs: 68.3% (Last: 55.6%) Champions: 3.7% (Last 2.8%)
Expected: A beeline to first place.
So far: A roundabout path to meeting expectation.
After a passive winter, the Twins entered the season as favorites to repeat in a soft division that hasn't turned out to be all that soft. Then they started the season 7-13. Yet, a little more than two weeks after that nadir, Minnesota's outlook has improved from its preseason baseline. That's what a 12-game winning streak will do. The Twins haven't reached first place, though, because of the resurgent Central, and are once again navigating through IL stays from Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton. The rise of Ryan Jeffers into the upper ranks of MLB backstops has certainly helped.
8. Chicago CubsWin average: 88.6 (Last: 83.5, 14th) In the playoffs: 75.3% (Last: 48.7%) Champions: 1.7% (Last 1.1%)
Expected: Craig Counsell wizardry.
So far: Magic wand not needed.
There are many reasons why Counsell is so highly regarded as a manager, but the first thing you hear about is his bullpen management. The Chicago bullpen thus far has been nerve-wracking. There have been key injuries (Drew Smyly, Julian Merryweather) and unexpected struggles (Jose Cuas and, especially, Adbert Alzolay). Yet the Cubs are in great position six weeks into the campaign. The offense has been solid despite injuries to Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. The rotation has been dynamite thanks to breakouts from Shota Imanaga, an early Cy Young candidate, Javier Assad and others. This is a solid, deep club.
9. Texas RangersWin average: 87.7 (Last: 86.2, 9th) In the playoffs: 61.0% (Last: 50.0%) Champions: 3.1% (Last 2.0%)
Expected: A slow burn title defense.
So far: A slow burn title defense.
Perhaps more than any other team, the Rangers have been largely what we thought they'd be. We also thought they'd get better through the season and become, once again, a tough out at playoff time. All of that is very much still on the table for the defending champs. Much of that anticipated trajectory relates to the starters on the IL -- Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle, joined since Opening Day by Nathan Eovaldi and Cody Bradford. But the stopgap rotation has been fine. The bullpen has struggled in high leverage, especially Jose Leclerc, and the offense has been surprisingly uneven.
10. Cleveland GuardiansWin average: 87.0 (Last: 84.5, 13th) In the playoffs: 54.9% (Last: 47.2%) Champions: 1.3% (Last 1.9%)
Expected: A punchless squad held back by offseason passivity.
So far: The step forward we thought we'd see in 2023.
Perhaps the most pleasantly surprising unit in baseball so far this season has been the Guardians' offense. Steven Kwan was leading the AL in hitting when he hit the IL this week. Josh Naylor has rocked a potent power bat. Cleveland is on pace to top both 150 homers and steals, something the Guardians have done just once before (1996). This is all despite a slow start from Jose Ramirez. The sustainability of the suddenly fecund attack, along with an Emmanuel Clase-led bullpen that has been among the game's best, will determine if Cleveland withstands its considerable challenges in the rotation.
11. Milwaukee BrewersWin average: 86.6 (Last: 78.0, 23rd) In the playoffs: 65.0% (Last: 22.5%) Champions: 1.2% (Last 0.4%)
Expected: Some post-Counsell hangover.
So far: Potent new Brew Crew.
If the Cleveland offense has been the revelation of the AL, the attack of the Brewers is its closest counterpart in the NL. Milwaukee's offense has been more prolific all across the slash indicators even though its strike zone indicators have held steady from 2023. The Brewers are hitting more homers, own a much better team average and, on the bases, have been both more aggressive and more efficient. The avatar of this surprise is second-year second baseman Brice Turang, who has been one of the NL's 10 best players so far. Also, no team has more quality outfield options than Milwaukee.
12. Seattle MarinersWin average: 86.6 (Last: 85.8, 11th) In the playoffs: 53.1% (Last: 47.5%) Champions: 2.3% (Last 2.0%)
Expected: Contention based on elite rotation and just enough from the Julio Rodriguez-led offense.
So far: Plenty of rotation zeros -- and too many of the same from J-Rod.
If the Mariners were getting better outings from No. 5 starter Emerson Hancock, they'd almost certainly have MLB's top rotation so far. They aren't far off from that anyway with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo and the emergent Bryce Miller all dealing consistently. Seattle has only used five starters while establishing an early lead in the AL West. That lead is small and possibly fleeting because of another season of lackluster offense. Some of that could have been anticipated, but it's hard to explain the lack of power from Rodriguez, whose slugging percentage has been stuck in the low .300s.
13. Boston Red SoxWin average: 81.9 (Last: 82.9, 16th) In the playoffs: 25.6% (Last: 33.4%) Champions: 0.5% (Last 1.3%)
Expected: Fallout from not adding more starting pitching.
So far: The best rotation in baseball.
This is despite losing Lucas Giolito, Boston's one splashy pitching staff addition, for the season. Boston's pitching has been astoundingly good. Red Sox starters have posted better game scores than their counterparts in 25 of their first 35 outings, the best success rate in the majors. Leading the charge has been Kutter Crawford, who has been the AL's top pitcher. One of the top contenders for that label is teammate Tanner Houck. The group should get healthier with IL'd Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta all picking up activity of late, lessening the need for the frequently used openers.
14. San Diego PadresWin average: 81.7 (Last: 82.5, 17th) In the playoffs: 36.1% (Last: 38.4%) Champions: 0.5% (Last 1.0%)
Expected: Mediocrity.
So far: Mediocrity.
The Padres are back in star-collecting mode with Luis Arraez coming over from the Marlins. San Diego needed a leadoff upgrade, though that was kind of a luxury upgrade as the Padres' offense has been one of baseball's best as constituted. And that's with Xander Bogaerts starting slow. But the Padres are still clinging to the middle because of their thin pitching staff, especially the bullpen beyond closer Robert Suarez. With struggling ace Joe Musgrove now on the IL, that lack of depth will be further tested in the weeks to come. More trades would not shock anyone.
15. Tampa Bay RaysWin average: 81.6 (Last: 86.6, 8th) In the playoffs: 25.2% (Last: 53.0%) Champions: 0.8% (Last 3.4%)
Expected: Another season of the Rays' wizardry.
So far: A paucity of magic.
The Rays have not played well in any facet so far and only a strong record in close games has kept them from falling well back in the crowded AL East. The deep struggles of Randy Arozarena have captured a lot of attention. But the big problem has been a simple lack of healthy arms. The IL list is staggering: Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche, Chris Devenski, Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan. The Rays have always managed to find run preventers, but at some point keeping the ones they have healthy has to be a priority.
16. Toronto Blue JaysWin average: 81.4 (Last: 85.6, 12th) In the playoffs: 24.7% (Last: 47.9%) Champions: 0.7% (Last 2.5%)
Expected: Another wild-card push.
So far: Headed in the wrong direction.
The Blue Jays' good news has been more than balanced out by their bad news, leaving Toronto smack dab in the middle. In the AL East, being in the middle puts you closer to last than first. The bad news is the focus because it's also the source for the most hope going forward. Toronto has gotten league-average showings thus far from its best hitter (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) and pitcher (Kevin Gausman), and for Toronto to rise, that has to change. Guerrero's 1.002 OPS in 2021 is starting to seem like a hazy memory even though he's still only 25.
17. Arizona DiamondbacksWin average: 81.3 (Last: 89.6, 5th) In the playoffs: 35.9% (Last: 73.1%) Champions: 0.7% (Last 4.4%)
Expected: Continued improvement.
So far: October hangover.
The thinking around Arizona entering the season was that it would get better even after a surprise pennant simply because of how many ascending players are on the roster. Instead, it has been veterans such as Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson who have kept the bottom from falling out. Most troubling has been the head-scratching start from budding franchise star Corbin Carroll, who ranks 27th on Arizona with a 96 AXE. Carroll's power bat has been nonexistent, and he hasn't gotten on base enough to make use of his elite speed. The Diamondbacks' potential rise is tied to Carroll's trajectory.
18. Kansas City RoyalsWin average: 80.9 (Last: 70.5, 24th) In the playoffs: 21.9% (Last: 4.3%) Champions: 0.2% (Last 0.0%)
Expected: A move toward respectability.
So far: A hot start that's increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Now that Bobby Witt Jr.'s defensive metrics have climbed into the elite, there might be no other player in the majors displaying such a full range of productive skills right now. He is an AL MVP candidate right now. Still, it has been the Royals' run prevention that has fueled their start. The rotation has featured a big three in Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and offseason pickup Seth Lugo. The bullpen has fallen into a nice pecking order with James McArthur occupying the closer role. And the team defense has been baseball's best. From here, Kansas City needs some hitters to overachieve.
19. St. Louis CardinalsWin average: 80.0 (Last: 83.0, 15th) In the playoffs: 27.4% (Last: 44.7%) Champions: 0.6% (Last 1.3%)
Expected: A more familiar flock.
So far: More ruffled feathers.
The Cardinals' pitching has been middle of the pack and the defense has been good. The offense has been missing in action, though, and if St. Louis doesn't find some consistent punch, another run at last place is a distinct possibility. Nolan Arenado hasn't hit for power. Paul Goldschmidt hasn't hit at all. St. Louis has no standout offensive traits, ranking in the bottom tier in BABIP, isolated power and secondary average, and not doing much on the bases, either. It's kind of a remarkable combination. Any potential Cardinals resurgence hinges on the top bats heating up soon as a group.
20. New York MetsWin average: 79.9 (Last: 80.1, 19th) In the playoffs: 26.0% (Last: 27.2%) Champions: 0.4% (Last 0.6%)
Expected: Quieter contention.
So far: Missing stars.
The Mets' start has been decidedly mixed. The rotation has been pretty good even with Kodai Senga lingering on the IL. The offense has been below average, but it could be worse considering the poor numbers at the dish so far from Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, not to mention the devastating injury to Francisco Alvarez. Like some other teams in this area of the rankings, the Mets really need their stars to produce -- especially because in New York's case, the middle and lower rungs of the roster have done their part. Overall, the Mets are hanging in.
21. Detroit TigersWin average: 79.6 (Last: 80.1, 20th) In the playoffs: 17.5% (Last: 27.0%) Champions: 0.3% (Last 0.4%)
Expected: Fringe wild-card contention.
So far: The excitement is building.
The Tigers' start has been fueled by the players you want powering a rising team. Among the hitters, Riley Greene has been an all-around beast. If he keeps doing what he's doing, he'll draw MVP support. From the pitching staff, Tarik Skubal has consolidated the gains he made last year and is one of baseball's elite pitchers. The pitching in general has been terrific, and a bullpen now anchored by Jason Foley has been among the best in MLB. The news hasn't been as good at several positions (Spencer Torkelson, Javier Baez especially), leaving Detroit short on offense too often.
22. Cincinnati RedsWin average: 78.3 (Last: 79.1, 21st) In the playoffs: 20.1% (Last: 26.3%) Champions: 0.2% (Last 0.3%)
Expected: Continued improvement.
So far: The Elly show is in full bloom.
The Reds have left too many wins on the table in the form of one- and two-run losses, undercutting what has mostly been an encouraging beginning. Nick Lodolo has thrown well since returning, giving the Reds a first-division rotation on paper, if not in performance, thus far. Still, this season has been all about Elly De La Cruz finding a better balance between the spectacular and the consistent. It's one of the best shows in baseball right now. The offense needs a couple of hot hitters to emerge while Cincinnati waits for the eventual returns of Matt McLain and TJ Friedl.
23. San Francisco GiantsWin average: 77.6 (Last: 82.2, 18th) In the playoffs: 16.9% (Last: 37.0%) Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.8%)
Expected: Step forward after an active winner.
So far: Acquisitions have mostly started slow.
The Giants' start has been a disappointment, with a sub-.500 mark that could be even worse given San Francisco's run differential. The offseason splurge has not yet paid off. Jordan Hicks has been good in the rotation, but after him, the Giants' second-best newcomer has been defensive wizard shortstop Nick Ahmed, who signed on a minor league deal. The splashy pickups -- Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Blake Snell and Jung Hoo Lee -- have all struggled to varying degrees. Snell has an ERA stuck at 11.57 while he recovers from an adductor injury. Seven of Frisco's nine regulars have OBPs under .300.
24. Pittsburgh PiratesWin average: 71.9 (Last: 70.4, 25th) In the playoffs: 4.3% (Last: 5.3%) Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expected: Measured progress.
So far: Too many slow starts.
For the second year in a row, the Pirates started fast and went into a fade, though this time the solid beginning petered out sooner than in 2023. Too many key performers have disappointed: closer David Bednar, veteran setup man Aroldis Chapman, hitters Oneil Cruz, Rowdy Tellez, Henry Davis (now back in Triple-A), Andrew McCutchen and Jack Suwinski. At the other end of the spectrum, rookie righty Jared Jones has achieved phenom status and offers a reason to watch Pittsburgh once every five days. That might become two out of five days once the vicious Paul Skenes is called up, hopefully soon.
25. Los Angeles AngelsWin average: 69.0 (Last: 70.3, 26th) In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 2.9%) Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expected: A post-Shohei bummer.
So far: Sadly meeting expectation.
One thing about tempered expectations: It doesn't sting as much when you meet them. Over the past few years, when Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout took up residence on the IL, at least Halo fans still had Shohei Ohtani to watch. This time around, they have to flip over to the Dodgers' game to do that. The Angels did not hit reset over the winter, even after Ohtani bolted. With a freefall looking increasingly likely, they have to reconsider that position over the next few weeks. Things have the potential to get very ugly for this team very soon.
26. Washington NationalsWin average: 67.3 (Last: 58.5, 29th) In the playoffs: 1.0% (Last: 0.1%) Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expected: Last place.
So far: Mediocre with a bullet.
There are two teams flirting with .500 who have every reason to be thrilled to be there, the Nationals and (just below) the Athletics. Of the two, the Nats' preseason forecast felt way too pessimistic but, hey, the numbers are what they are. But Washington has started well and is right in the pack of other middling NL teams angling for the last wild-card slot. Some young player breakouts have been genuinely exciting -- CJ Abrams has played like an All-Star, speed merchant CF Jacob Young has been terrific and both MacKenzie Gore and Mitchell Parker have excelled in the rotation.
27. Oakland AthleticsWin average: 66.0 (Last: 61.9, 28th) In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 0.3%) Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expected: An advert for nihilism.
So far: Yet more proof that baseball is a funny sport.
Remember the running dialogue of those Cleveland construction workers in "Major League," whose assessments softened as a team expected to be terrible on its way out of town started winning? Perhaps there is a version of them right now in Oakland talking about the A's. The back of the Athletics' bullpen has been dynamic behind star closer Mason Miller. They've gotten competent work from journeymen like Abraham Toro, Paul Blackburn, Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday and Tyler Nevin. It has been a lot less grim than it might have been.
28. Miami MarlinsWin average: 62.2 (Last: 78.5, 22nd) In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 20.7%) Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.3%)
Expected: Better than this.
So far: Worse than imagined.
The Marlins have made four postseason appearances in their 31-year history. Through Sunday, in the years after those playoff runs, Miami is a combined 94 games under .500. That's despite going 83-79 the year after the 2003 championship. Miami fans should not get used to nice things. This season was invariably going to be a challenge because of Sandy Alcantara's surgery. It became more complicated when Eury Perez joined him. Still, the season didn't have to become another disaster. The trade of Luis Arraez might be the start of an exodus that will only accelerate Miami's latest race to the bottom.
29. Colorado RockiesWin average: 53.2 (Last: 56.7, 30th) In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%) Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expected: To do worse than the owner suggests.
So far: Right on target.
You hate to be too hard on Kris Bryant, a beloved ballplayer to many, who has fallen prey to a terrible string of injury luck. Now that he's dealing with a bad back and a .149 batting average, Bryant's decline seems to be picking up speed. And, Rockies fans, Bryant has four years and $104 million left on his tab after this season. The deal Bryant signed with Colorado before the 2022 campaign was a head-scratcher at the time, but it might go down as the worst free agent deal ever. So far as a Rockie, Bryant is at minus-0.9 bWAR.
30. Chicago White SoxWin average: 52.3 (Last: 62.7, 27th) In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.7%) Champions: 0.0% (Last 0.0%)
Expected: The beginning of a needed rebuild.
So far: Splat!
Chicago remains on pace to challenge the loss record and has a run differential to support that somber quest. But things have been better of late, and so perhaps this worst-ever chatter will die out organically. As bad as it has been, these are the early stages of a full reset and chances are, the talent-gathering phase of this process is just beginning. In the meantime, it hasn't been all bad. The signing of Erick Fedde has more or less worked out. The move of Garrett Crochet into the rotation has proven wise. Korey Lee looks like a big league catcher.
